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| #202765 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 23.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED AND CRISTOBAL NO LONGER HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS USING GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT ALSO SUGGEST THAT CRISTOBAL HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN ASYMMETRIC COLD CORE LOW...I.E. AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH THAT...CRISTOBAL IS DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CRISTOBAL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THE DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE SUGGEST CRISTOBAL HAS WEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. SINCE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A LACK OF BAROCLINIC FORCING...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO PRIOR TO CRISTOBAL MERGING WITH OR BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 44.7N 55.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 23/1800Z 45.3N 51.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/0600Z 44.4N 44.8W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/1800Z 42.6N 38.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME |
