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| #202818 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 23.Jul.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008 ...DOLLY VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WITH 100 MPH WINDS...EYE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT O`CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O`CONNOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IN A FEW HOURS. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVER JUST EAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 119 MPH...192 KM/HR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1200 PM CDT AND 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
