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| #205388 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 04.Aug.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 11Z...AND THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 45 KT WINDS AT 850 MB OUTBOUND FROM THAT FIX. IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST 12 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER... INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CONVECTION...ALBEIT POORLY ORGANIZED...IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST FORECAST ERROR CHARACTERISTICS...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EDOUARD WILL BE A HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...AND THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 28.2N 90.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 28.4N 92.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 29.1N 94.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 29.7N 96.5W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
