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| #205452 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:14 PM 04.Aug.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008 DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS...BUT THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVN'T CHANGED MUCH. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT. STRUCTURALLY...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION...WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE THRESHOLD. IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. EDOUARD'S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 28.3N 91.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 28.6N 92.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 29.4N 95.0W 60 KT...JUST INLAND 36HR VT 06/0600Z 30.5N 97.0W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/1800Z 31.5N 99.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
