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| #205504 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 04.Aug.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008 EDOUARD HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY AND ENTRAINMENT HAS CONFINED THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. HOWEVER... THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE WSR-88D DOPPLER AT LAKE CHARLES IS SHOWING WINDS OF 60-65 KT AT 10000 FT NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OCCURRED BETWEEN 18Z-00Z...AND SINCE THAT ENDED THERE HAS BEEN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/6. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. EDOUARD SHOULD MOVE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL LANDFALL AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER TEXAS...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE SHEAR... POSSIBLE DRY AIR...AND RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ARGUE AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BEFORE LANDFALL. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW CALLS FOR EDOUARD TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR LANDFALL AS A 55-60 KT TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE STORM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE. AFTER LANDFALL...EDOUARD SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 28.7N 92.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 29.1N 93.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 30.0N 95.6W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/1200Z 31.1N 97.9W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/0000Z 32.0N 99.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
