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| #207717 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:26 PM 15.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008 REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME BETTER DEFINED...WITH 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND ENOUGH WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER TO JUSTIFY CALLING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THESE WESTERLIES ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 45 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...THE SIXTH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12. FAY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR. WHILE ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS WEAKNESS WILL CAUSE FAY TO TURN NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST WHERE FAY WILL TRACK. THE NAM CALLS FOR FAY TO PASS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE HWRF CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS FAY TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AND REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR FAY TO CROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA...THEN PASS NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO CROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES FROM THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE STORM WILL BE AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE TIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 18.5N 69.4W 35 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 16/0600Z 18.9N 71.3W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 16/1800Z 19.4N 74.1W 35 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.0W 40 KT...OVER COAST OF FLORIDA 96HR VT 19/1800Z 26.5N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA 120HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W 40 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
