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| #207799 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 16.Aug.2008) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 0900 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTHERN COAST TO SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS ON THE SOUTHERN COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF CENTRAL CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 72.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 72.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 71.4W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.6N 76.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 78.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.8N 79.9W...NEAR SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 32.0N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 72.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
