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| #207800 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 16.Aug.2008) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 ...FAY WILL CROSS HAITI AND EMERGE OVER WATER LATER TODAY... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTHERN COAST TO SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS ON THE SOUTHERN COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF CENTRAL CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 35 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.7 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
