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| #207874 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 16.Aug.2008) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008 AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CINEFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN... GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELED NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 75.2W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 75.2W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 74.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 77.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 79.1W...NEAR COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N 81.6W...INLAND OVER CUBA MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 82.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 75.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
