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| #207921 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:49 PM 16.Aug.2008) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 800 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 ...FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA... AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...AND FOR CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... JAMAICA...AND GRAND CAYMAN. INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...70KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FAY IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR SUNDAY AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS WESTERN CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
