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| #207982 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 17.Aug.2008) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 0900 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EEFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 77.3W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 77.3W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.7N 81.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.4N 82.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 32.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 77.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME |
