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| #208000 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:52 AM 17.Aug.2008) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 ...CENTER OF FAY NEAR CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA......WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED WESTWARD IN CUBA... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 8 AT EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS. AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD LA HABAMA EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 395 MILES... 635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. RAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER HAITI TODAY. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...20.0 N...78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN |
