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| #208017 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 AM 17.Aug.2008) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1500 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS... INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 78.6W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 78.6W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 78.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 80.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.9N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 32.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 78.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
