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| #208139 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 17.Aug.2008) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2008 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY WESTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN. AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 80.6W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 80.6W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 80.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.8N 82.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.3N 82.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.5N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 37.5N 82.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 80.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
