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| #208185 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:23 AM 18.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER OF FAY OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ROTATION ALOFT APPARENT IN RADAR IMAGERY. WITH THIS FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10. ASCAT DATA SOUTH OF CUBA PRIOR TO LANDFALL SHOWED THE SURFACE CENTER BECOMING ELONGATED...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DISTORTION OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OVER CUBA. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FAY WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE PERSISTS AND THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERTICALLY CONNECTED. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR. GIVEN THAT...ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...WITH THESE WINDS OCCURRING JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS IMPEDING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SOME WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...RAPID STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FAY FROM REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 22.5N 80.9W 45 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 25.1N 82.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 26.6N 82.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 82.2W 60 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 21/0600Z 31.1N 82.0W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 22/0600Z 33.0N 82.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 23/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
