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| #208222 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 18.Aug.2008) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2008 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO COCOA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF FLAMINGO... INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA TO TARPON SPRINGS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 81.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 65NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 81.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 81.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.6N 81.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.8N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.3N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 35.5N 82.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
