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#208363 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 18.Aug.2008) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 81.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 81.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 81.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.6N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.1N 81.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.2N 81.0W...ON COAST MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.3N 81.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.0N 81.5W...ON COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 32.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 32.0N 84.0W...INLAND...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 81.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |