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| #208438 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 AM 19.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 SFMR...DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FAY DID NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...BEFORE COMING ASHORE. A DROPSONDE REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT...AND THERE WERE BELIEVABLE 49 KT WINDS FROM THE SFMR. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED WAS 61 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. THERE WERE A FEW SFMR WINDS ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER THAT MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN CORRECT...BUT IN ANY EVENT FAY DIDN'T MAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC AS FORECAST...FAY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO A CONSENSUS HAS BEEN BUILDING ON FAY BEING TRAPPED BENEATH A MIGRATORY MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERLIES...WITH EVEN THE GFDL BEGINNING TO BACK OFF ON A PROLONGED NORTHWARD MOTION. THE GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO THE WEST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 25.9N 81.7W 50 KT...LANDFALL 12HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 81.3W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 20/0600Z 28.3N 80.9W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 20/1800Z 29.3N 80.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 30.0N 81.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 30.5N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 23/0600Z 31.0N 83.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 24/0600Z 31.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
