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| #208656 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 19.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON. THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 27.3N 81.0W 55 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 80.5W 55 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 80.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 30.0N 81.4W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 22/1800Z 30.5N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.4N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
