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| #208735 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 19.Aug.2008) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 ...FAY WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE OVER FLORIDA.. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. FAY HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FAY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT FAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRENGTHEN WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...27.7 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
