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| #208942 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 20.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER BUT THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE. SURFACE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...IF AT ALL. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT BEGAN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF FAY IS ALREADY BLOCKING ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND FAY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE REGARDING THE SLOW MOTION IS THAT FAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DUMP TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH...AND WILL PROBABLY BE REMEMBERED AS A VERY WET STORM. THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST KEEPING FAY OVER LAND IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK GUIDANCE. ONLY THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS FAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 28.8N 80.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 29.2N 80.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 29.5N 81.8W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 22/0600Z 29.8N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 22/1800Z 30.2N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 86.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z 32.5N 88.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
