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| #209002 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 20.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE. WSR-88D VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE MOST RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY IN A FEW HOURS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TOMORROW...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IF FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...AND SPENDS MORE TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW. IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 28.9N 80.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
