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| #209173 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 21.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER CORE. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE...FAY SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST...AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.3N 80.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.5N 81.6W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 22/1200Z 29.6N 82.7W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 23/0000Z 29.8N 84.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/1200Z 32.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
