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| #209251 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 21.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE. SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 29.4N 81.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.8W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 23/1800Z 30.4N 86.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
