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| #209454 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 22.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 FAY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER PRIMARILY OVER WATER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES WELL ESTABLISHED. BASED ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 40 KNOTS. THE INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL CAUSE FAY TO WEAKEN BUT BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...FAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. BY THEN...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 29.6N 82.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 29.7N 83.5W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.0W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0000Z 30.3N 86.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.6N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/1200Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/1200Z 32.5N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
