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| #209856 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 23.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD WITH HALF OF ITS CIRCULATION OVER WATER AND HALF OVER LAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH THE STRONGEST ONE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS AND BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER WATER...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER INLAND A MORE DEFINITE WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK AND FAY IS MOVING WESTWARD OT 275 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. FAY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 30.1N 85.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 86.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 30.5N 88.4W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/0000Z 30.6N 89.5W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/1200Z 30.7N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/1200Z 32.5N 90.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1200Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
