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| #210046 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 23.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7. RAIN BANDS HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER WATER...AND ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING. FAY IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...ALTHOUGH RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST EVEN OVER LAND AREAS. SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FAY COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THE DOWNGRADE BASED ON WINDS DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS WELL INLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...MOST MODELS FORECAST THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE...LEAVING FAY TO PERHAPS MEANDER OR EVEN REMAIN STATIONARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...FURTHER EXACERBATING THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON WHAT BECOMES OF FAY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME...SUCH AS THE GFS...FORECASTING A BRISK MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT WITH OTHERS CALLING FOR FAY TO HANG AROUND THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE...SHOWING A VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 30.9N 87.1W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 24/1200Z 31.3N 88.6W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.2N 90.3W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0000Z 35.0N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
