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| #210809 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 26.Aug.2008) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008 ...GUSTAV MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 180 MILES ...290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...73.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
