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| #211021 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 27.Aug.2008) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 ...GUSTAV A LITTLE WEAKER... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR 90 MILES...150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GUSTAV VERY NEAR JAMAICA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HAITI...AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...19.1 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH |
