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| #211253 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 28.Aug.2008) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008 ...GUSTAV MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA... AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 310 MILES...505 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS JAMAICA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHILE GUSTAV CROSSES JAMAICA...BUT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TONIGHT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N...76.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
