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| #211503 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 29.Aug.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 THE CENTER OF HANNA REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RATHER SHAPELESS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1412 UTC ASCAT PASS FOUND WINDS OF 40 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN THE LOW BIAS TYPICAL OF ASCAT WINDS IN THIS RANGE...IT SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH REMAIN T3.0 OR 45 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS NOT BUDGED TODAY AND IT CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN EMPHATIC SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER-LOW WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN...ALLOWING HANNA TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT SHOWS A LOWER PEAK INTENSITY THAN WAS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE WINDS ARE PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV. DESPITE THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECAST...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT WEAKENING. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND STILL ASSUMES THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HANNA'S INTENSITY. HANNA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/9. IN GENERAL...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF HANNA. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE HWRF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SHOWING A CYCLONIC LOOP NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER WEST THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 21.8N 63.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.8N 65.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 24.0N 67.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.8N 69.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 71.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 72.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 23.7N 73.7W 60 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 75.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
