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| #211577 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 29.Aug.2008) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 ...CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST. INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...WEST SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND GUSTAVE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 974 MB...28.76 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE JUVENTUD. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION FROM GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.5 N...80.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
