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| #211602 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:52 AM 30.Aug.2008) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008 ...GUSTAV STRENGTHENS...BEARING DOWN ON THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE LA HABANA AND THE ISLA DE JUVENTUD. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST. INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 315 MILES...500 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND GUSTAVE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE JUVENTUD. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA TODAY. PRECIPITATION FROM GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...19.7 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA |
