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| #211668 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 AM 30.Aug.2008) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008 ...MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH... AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST. INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 225 MILES...360 KM ...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. GUSTAV HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SOON RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY MONDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL THERE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...20.8 N...81.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
