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| #211919 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 31.Aug.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008 APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA TOOK MORE OF A TOLL ON THE HURRICANE THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 98 KT...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING TREND AS THE EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO AROUND 25 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT...AND GUSTAV MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THE MOMENT. HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES THE RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND MOST MODELS INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE SKILL OF THESE MODELS IS RATHER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE EARLIER ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. BASED UPON AIRCRAFT DATA AND RADAR FIXES FROM KEY WEST...GUSTAV IS MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST AND ITS MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/14. THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN APPEARS TO BE WELL-DEFINED...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE HURRICANE. A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT IS ANTICIPATED AS GUSTAV NEARS THE COAST DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF GUSTAV AS THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...IT IS NOW TIME TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0900Z 24.2N 85.0W 110 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 25.6N 86.3W 120 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 27.5N 88.4W 125 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT...NEAR COAST 48HR VT 02/0600Z 30.5N 92.2W 75 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 03/0600Z 31.7N 93.7W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH |
