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| #211956 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:44 AM 31.Aug.2008) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 700 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008 ...GUSTAV MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER....AND FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES... 605 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK... GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY. REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL. GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 51 MPH...81 KM/HR...WITH A GUST OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 18 TO 25 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER TODAY. REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...24.7 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
