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| #212152 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 31.Aug.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC EARLIER IN THE EVENING AND WAS GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CORE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH HAD BEEN FALLING...SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED WITH THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATE BEING 954 MB. FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 100 KT...WITH A PEAK SMFR WIND OF 100 KT JUST OBSERVED A FEW MINUTES AGO...AND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT. THE SFMR DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED... SPREADING OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER A LARGER AREA. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR BETWEEN 300 AND 500 MB WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTER OF GUSTAV FROM THE SOUTH. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM ITS CURRENT CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS...THE GFDL...HWRF...SHIPS...AND LGEM SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE REMAINING TIME GUSTAV HAS OVER WATER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THAT SHOWS GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AFTER THAT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY. AS BEFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS IN THE EXPECTATION THAT GUSTAV WILL SHEAR OFF...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 27.3N 88.1W 100 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 105 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 30.1N 91.9W 85 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.3W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 03/0000Z 31.8N 94.3W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 04/0000Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 95.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
