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| #212208 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 01.Sep.2008) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 400 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008 ...GUSTAV NEARING THE LOUISIANA COAST...HEAVY RAIN BANDS APPROACHING NEW ORLEANS... AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR...AND A STATION AT SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 76 MPH...122 KM/HR WITH A GUST OF 108 MPH...174 KM/HR AT AN ELEVATION OF 79 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 956 MB...28.23 INCHES. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...28.4 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 600 AM CDT AND 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG |
