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| #212299 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:04 AM 01.Sep.2008) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 800 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008 ...GUSTAV WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...EYEWALL MOVING ONTO THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY. REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION IN SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...28.9 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
