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| #212341 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 01.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTLY OF CONVECTION..NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION HOLDS FOR WHILE TO CALL IT A TROPICAL STORM...PROBABLY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.6N 39.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.0N 41.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 44.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 20.0N 47.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.5N 50.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 22.0N 56.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 23.5N 68.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
