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| #212349 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 01.Sep.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008 THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR COCODRIE ABOUT 1430 UTC. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE BECAME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR. HOWEVER...WIND DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT ALONG WITH DOPPLER RADAR WINDS SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13. GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...SO THE 72-120 HR PART OF THE TRACK IS CHANGED FROM A WESTWARD DRIFT TO A NORTHWARD DRIFT. GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW AT FIRST AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE SOUTH LOUISIANA MARSHES. A FASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN 6-12 HR AS THE CENTER REACHES MORE SOLID GROUND. AFTER 48 HR...GUSTAV IS LIKELY TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER BEHIND. THUS...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR. THE THREAT OF HIGH STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 29.2N 90.8W 95 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 30.3N 92.4W 70 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/1200Z 31.3N 93.8W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 03/0000Z 31.9N 94.6W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 03/1200Z 32.4N 95.3W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 04/1200Z 33.0N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/1200Z 33.5N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
