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| #213011 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 02.Sep.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008 THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SEEN EARLIER TODAY WITH JOSEPHINE HAS STOPPED TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW AN ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH LOTS OF BANDING...CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT INDICATED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 45 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT. JOSEPHINE COULD INTENSIFY SOME WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER ALL GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES DIVING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STORM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSE AT LEAST SOME SLOW WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER FORECAST JOSEPHINE TO BE A HURRICANE...A BIG CHANGE FROM EARLIER. MICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...ABOUT 280/10. WEAK RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE STORM IN A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD FASHION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE NOT AS CLUSTERED AS BEFORE WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE HWRF/GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.6N 26.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.0N 28.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 14.7N 31.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 33.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 36.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 40.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 44.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 22.0N 49.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
