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| #213082 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 03.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008 IKE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AROUND THE STORM...WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE AND...UNTIL THIS INNER CORE BECOMES ESTABLISHED... STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOW. HOWEVER...ONCE AN EYEWALL BECOMES DEFINED THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD INCREASE. THE ONLY OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING IS AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AROUND 48 HOURS AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF MUCH OF OUR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER HURRICANE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT ACCELERATION AND THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES REQUIRE A BIT OF A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK. INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 285/16. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS SEEMS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A BUILDING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF IKE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND THIS WOULD FORCE A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT. HOWEVER THE TRACK MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL TURN. THE GFDL AND DEEP-LAYER BAM ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST AND BRING IKE OVER HISPANIOLA WHEREAS THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH IS ALSO A CREDIBLE MODEL...TAKES THE CYCLONE TO MUCH HIGHER LATITUDES. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RECENT TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.6N 49.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 21.3N 52.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 22.2N 55.1W 70 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 22.8N 58.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 23.2N 60.8W 80 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 23.0N 66.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 71.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
