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| #213088 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 03.Sep.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008 FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE HANNA HAS ALMOST COMPLETED A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AND IS NOW POSSIBLY TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE 993 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE REPORT THAT ALSO MEASURED 25-KT SURFACE WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTAINED UPPER-AIR DATA FROM DROPSONDES RELEASED AROUND HANNAFROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT... WHICH USUALLY PRODUCES BETTER TRACK FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WITH HANNA EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BY 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.2N 72.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 21.5N 72.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 23.2N 74.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 24.8N 76.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 78.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 33.7N 80.0W 70 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/0600Z 42.5N 71.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 120HR VT 08/0600Z 51.0N 55.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
