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| #213181 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 03.Sep.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THE INTENSITY IS NOW NEAR 55 KT. IF JOSEPHINE HAS ASPIRATIONS OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...IT NEEDS TO DO SO QUICKLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST...IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGING UPON JOSEPHINE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESENCE OF ARC CLOUDS EMANATING FROM THE CLOUD CANOPY SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR MIGHT BE AFFECTING JOSEPHINE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GET EVEN STRONGER AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GET COOLER... WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRACIOUSLY ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS SO JOSEPHINE COULD WEAKER FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE. WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALMOST DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. SINCE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD...A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 13.8N 28.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.1N 30.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 14.8N 33.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 15.4N 35.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 16.0N 38.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 17.5N 43.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 19.5N 47.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 22.0N 52.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME |
