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| #213184 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 AM 03.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008 IKE IS WRAPPING UP SOME SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDING AS VIEWED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND SINCE A PARTIAL OVERPASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO FROM AMSR-E SUGGESTED A MICROWAVE EYE WAS FORMING...WE MIGHT SEE AN EYE IN THE VISIBLE BEFORE TOO MUCH LONGER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 4.0...BUT OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE LOWER...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT FOR NOW. IN ANY CASE...IKE IS ON THE CUSP OF BEING A HURRICANE AND SHOULD BE ONE LATER TODAY. THE UNDERLYING OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...MAXIMIZING BEYOND 48 HOURS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STRENGTHENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IKE MIGHT ENCOUNTER A LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST ANY WEAKENING AS A RESULT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST ROBUST STRENGTHENING...UNTIL IKE HEADS FARTHER WEST...ESCAPES THE SHEAR...AND MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5 IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS...AND IKE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE FIVE DAYS PASS. IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MODELS FORECAST IKE TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THAT RIDGE...BUT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS IT WILL RUN INTO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THAT FEATURE...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT LATITUDE OR THE SPEED OF THAT WESTWARD MOTION. THE CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE LATE IN THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...BUT OTHERWISE THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.8N 51.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 21.7N 53.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.8W 70 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 23.8N 59.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 62.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 22.5N 67.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 22.0N 71.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 22.5N 75.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
