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| #213759 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 AM 05.Sep.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT AND IS DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN TANDEM TO THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3. AFTERWARD...THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL FILL ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE SHEAR CAUSING JOSEPHINE TO STRENGTHEN A BIT. IN FACT...THE UKMET ACTUALLY INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SYSTEM AROUND DAY 5 JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. JOSEPHINE IS MOVING WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A WEAKENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH. A 0422Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT 305/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FURTHER DURING WITHIN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE HWRF ACTUALLY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS DEVELOPING AND TURNS JOSEPHINE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING A REESTABLISHMENT OF THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WHICH MAY TURN JOSEPHINE BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 15.7N 34.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 16.1N 35.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 16.8N 36.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 17.8N 38.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 40.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 21.5N 44.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 47.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 10/0600Z 25.5N 50.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB |
