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| #213825 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 05.Sep.2008) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2008 INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 62.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 62.7W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.9N 64.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 67.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 69.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.2N 72.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 24.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 62.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
