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| #213834 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:15 AM 05.Sep.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AS THE LATEST CONVECTIVE BURST HAS PRODUCED AN INNER WIND CORE. HOWEVER...THE RADAR-OBSERVED VELOCITIES DO NOT YET SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. THE CENTER OF HANNA JOGGED WESTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z. HOWEVER...THE MELBOURNE RADAR SUGGEST THE CENTER HAS RESUMED A MORE NORTHWARD MOTIONS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 325/17. HANNA IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 36 HR TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL ISSUES...THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT NEAR LANDFALL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HANNA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR. THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 28.9N 79.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 31.2N 79.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 34.5N 79.1W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0000Z 38.2N 76.1W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/1200Z 42.5N 70.1W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/1200Z 49.0N 52.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1200Z 50.5N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1200Z 51.0N 18.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
