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| #214020 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 05.Sep.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSACE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 978 MB BUT WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN SHRINKING SINCE HANNA APPEARS TO BE MORE TROPICAL AND THERE IS A PERSISTENT AND LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HANNA COULD REACH THE COAST IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS AS A HURRICANE SINCE IT ONLY NEEDS FIVE KNOTS TO BE ONE. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65-KT HURRICANE. RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT HANNA IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND SOON HANNA SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER LANDFALL...AS HANNA BECOMES FULLY INVOLVED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW...IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD...HANNA WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 32.4N 79.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 34.9N 78.6W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/0000Z 39.0N 75.0W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/1200Z 42.5N 69.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/0000Z 46.5N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0000Z 51.5N 27.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0000Z 55.0N 13.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
